A few days before the Olympics, I asked each one of my family members, "if you had to bet everything you had on one gold medal, who would you bet on?" The answers I received were Simone Biles in the individual all around, Katie Ledecky in the 1500 free and the US Men's basketball team. My answer was the US Women's basketball team. We are four days in and one of my family members has already lost everything. Another isn't looking real good with that basketball team. I am confident that Ledecky will win the 1500 tonight, but my confidence in American swimming recently has been, shall we say, a bit too strong.
Every Olympics has favorites and underdogs. Every Olympics has surprises and upsets. Raise your hand if you picked Tom Daley and Matty Lee to upset the Chinese and win the Synchronized Platform Diving. Now put your hand down and stop lying. The only thing we can be sure of is that we can't be sure of anything. Even the South Koreans in Archery, who look like Robin Hood out there, are not a certainty.
In the Women's Cycling Road Race Anna Kiesenhofer of Austria won after an early attack, a big lead, and the fact that the Dutch forgot about her. You read that right. She rode the final 41 KM alone and after the main group caught the rest of the early break, Dutch rider Annemiek van Vleuten attacked at the end and crossed the finish celebrating her gold medal, only to find out later that she had not won gold, because someone else was there over a minute earlier.
In the Women's Mountain Bike race, France's Loana Lecomte was the favorite. Not only had she won every race she entered this year, she had led the entire way in every race she entered this year. But today wasn't her day. Apparently, this was her only bad day this year. France's Pauline Ferrand-Prevot was with eventual winner Jolanda Neff until she slipped and fell on a rocky uphill, then watched her bike slide down the hill away from her, then had to slide down the same hill like she was on ice. I can't make this up.
Today, in one of the biggest shocks of the Olympics so far, Simone Biles withdrew. A few days ago, Ledecky lost the 400 free. Yesterday, China lost the Mixed Doubles Table Tennis gold to japan, after having a 2-0 lead. (OK, I'm not well versed in the Table Tennis world, I still call it ping pong, but apparantly this was a HUGE upset. I heard that on the TV and everything you hear on the TV is true.) The US didn't win the men's 100 backstroke. The US Softball team was not able to come back in the gold medal game. A 17 year old won the Women's 100 Breast and Lily King got the Bronze. Unexpected things are happening everywhere. Someone cover Caeleb Dressel in bubble wrap, like now.
We like certainty. Certainty provides comfort. Certainty allows US Swimming fans to arrogantly assume the the Men's 100 Back medal is our birthright. But, like the 4x100 Free Relay, which we won every time we swam it until 2000, all good things must come to an end. Eventually, the Women's Soccer team will lose, uhhh..., or have lost, the Softball team won't be able to come back, the Chinese won't win diving or Table Tennis, and everyone will get old. People in the swimming world like to say that Katie Ledecky created Ariarne Titmus. Of course, that's what makes sports compelling. Certainty is comforting, but can be boring. If we knew what was going to happen, there would be no reason to watch. And someone in my house wouldn't owe me everything they have. you see, the US Women's Basketball team keeps winning...for now.
Reflections on What Has Happened (Focus for this will be on US sports and medals, but we will touch on other stuff as time permits) -
1. Gotta love the sweep of gold medals in Skeet Shooting. Bravo Vincent Hancock and Amber English. Bravo.
2. Water polo keeps rolling, volleyball keeps rolling.
3. Our Women's 3x3 Basketball Team lost to japan. Just when I started to feel another dominant run.
4. Women's Soccer better figure out what's going on if they want to be the first team to win gold after winning the World Cup.
5. Do you think they could show more Olympics tennis? I mean, do you need one channel showing nothing but tennis 24 hours a day? Maybe that isn't really what's happening, but it feels like it. I don't need tennis in the Olympics, much less all over the Olympics.
6. Speaking of, did you need to show the softball game 4-5 times? Live last night, again this morning, again this afternoon. I have nothing against Japan, but I am looking forward to an Olympics that doesn't happen overnight.
7. Tropical storms are great for surfing conditions.
What to Watch for:
1. Ledecky-Titmus II is actually tonight.
2. Rugby coming to an end soon. Watch it if you haven't.
3. 3x3 Basketball medal games. Can the US win a hostoric first Gold?
4. What will Great Britain do in the men's 4x200 Free Relay, after finishing 1-2 in the 200 Free.
5. What will the UVA girls do in the 200 IM?
6. Will I continue my homer ways in swimming predictions?
Predictions Recap:
1. US Men's Gymnastics team pulls off a bronze. - Wrong - Uhhhh, no.
2. Softball GOLD! - Wrong - Uhhhh, no.
3. Women's Soccer - 3-0 win. Wrong - Uhhhh, no.
4. Murphy continues the backstroke streak. Wrong - Uhhhh, no.
5. Regan Smith wins gold, but doesn't get her world record back - Wrong - Uhhhh, no.
6. Kieran Smith Bronze in 200 Free. - Wrong - Uhhhh, no.
7. Lily King/Lydia Jacoby 1-2 in 100 Breast. Wrong - Uhhhh, no. (I was at least close.)You have to love my consistency.
Predictions (Swimming only tonight):
1. UVA Girls Silver and Bronze in 200 IM.
2. Ledecky Silver in 200 Free.
3. No medals in men's 200 Fly.
4. Ledecky Gold in 1500 Free, but no World Record.
5. Britain wins 4x200 Free Relay. US Silver.
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