Everybody PANIC!!!

The nature of football is perfect for over-analysis and over-reaction.  Each team plays one game per week.  After that game, fans have anywhere from 4 to 15 days to over-react to what they just saw. Of course, if you look at football long term, you will realize that what happens in one individual week has little bearing on the whole picture.  To fully appreciate a football team, you must observe the aggregate of many games and reach conclusions based on trends.

I'll give you an example.  Last season in the season opener for each team, the Washington Redskins defeated the New York Giants 28-14.  Rex Grossman, the starting quarterback for the Skins completed 21 of 34 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns.  From this game, you would conclude, and Redskins fans did conclude, that Rex Grossman was the answer at quarterback, that Mike Shanahan was the greatest coach ever and that the Skins were once again on their way to Super Bowl glory.  Of course, Redskin fans have spent the last 20 years entering the month of September convinced that their team was destined for Super Bowl glory, but that is another issue they have to deal with.

The reality, as we learned over a 16 game season, is that Rex Grossman gives to defensive backs more generously than Santa gives to children, Mike Shanahan is the beneficiary of having coached the greatest quarterback ever and the Skins ended their season just where they have every year since 1991, buried in a sea of disappointment deeper than that of Wizards fans.  And let's be honest, Wizards fans are buried pretty deep.  We also learned that Eli Manning made a pact with the devil when he was 17 years old, and has been rewarded with more Super Bowl rings than his clearly superior in every way brother and two Super Bowl victories over dreamy Tom Brady.  I hope eternity in damnation is worth it.

As you can see, not only is football perfect for over-reaction, but Week 1 is the Everest of the over-reaction weeks.  Here is what we "learned" after one week of NFL Football:

1.  Mike Vick is more giving than Ron Mexico, and Ron Mexico was giving all sorts of stuff away.
2.  Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback of all time.
3.  San Francisco's defense is better than the Steel Curtain.
4.  Robert Griffin III is actually better than Peyton Manning.
5.  Pittsburgh's defense is older than the Dead Sea.
6.  The NFC West is worse than the ACC Coastal Division.
7.  I can't predict very well.
8.  Cleveland sucks.  Brandon Weeden is o-l-d.
9.  Baltimore is the best team in the NFL.  Except perhaps the Skins.
10.  Aaron Rogers's best days are behind him.
11.  Ryan Lochte is GORGEOUS.
12.  Mark Sanchez and the Jets are the return of Dan Fouts and the San Diego...Super-Chargers.
13.  Norv Turner can actually coach.
14.  Chicks dig scars.
15.  The Washington Nationals are better without Stephen Strasburg.

Now, some of this may be true (see the Vick thing and the Lochte thing.)  Some of these are clearly over-reactions to a single incident (like the "I can't predict well" thing and the chicks digging scars thing.)  We did, however, have a full slate of Sunday games, two Monday games and a full week to freak out.  And, God as my witness, boy did people freak out.  Here in Washington, the town is ready to turn Griffin into Dictator for Life.  After one game.  Over a team without their head coach, their interim head coach and two key defensive players.  I thought New Orleans would step up and play with a chip on their shoulder.  I was wrong, hence the "bad predicting" over-reaction mentioned above.  So, we can't be sure whether Griffin really is Steve Young, John Elway, Troy Aikman, Carl Lewis and Muhammed Ali  rolled up into the same person, or if New Orleans is this year's winner of the Most Dysfunctional Pro Sports Franchise Award (won the last 4 years by Les Boulez).  We won't know for a long time.

So just relax.  Vick isn't the worst quarterback in the league and I didn't get every prediction wrong.  And, we get to come back and try again.  While, of course, being influenced by various over-reactions

Chicago @ Green Bay(-5) - I wouldn't put Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers into an 0-2 hole, would I?  I wouldn't buy into the hype that Green Bay's defense is as stout as the French Army and Jay Cutler is going to take his considerable physical skills and combine them with a knack for quarterbacking, thereby ending the possible and inevitable comparisons to Jeff George, would I?  Yes I would.  Chi.

Arizona @ New England(-13.5) - Never take a double digit favorite in the NFL...unless they are playing Arizona.  NE.

Tampa Bay @ New York Giants(-8) - Eli, the Devil is calling.  Losing to Tony Romo does not get you out of your deal.  NYG.

Minnesota(-3) @ Indianapolis - If you are consistently bad, you get Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder.  If you are REALLY bad at the right time, you get Andrew Luck or Tim Duncan.  Ind.

New Orleans(-3) @ Carolina - Here is my over-reaction of the week.  If you give up 40 points to the Skins one week, you shouldn't be a road favorite the next week.  Car.

Kansas City @ Buffalo(-3) - If you give up 48 points to Mark Sanchez, you shouldn't be favored over anyone who isn't quarterbacked by Brandon Weeden.  Even Matt Cassell.  KC.

Baltimore @ Philadelphia(-3) - One team needed a last minute touchdown to overcome a 4 int performance by their quarterback and beat Cleveland, the armpit of America and the NFL.  The other team methodically destroyed a 2011 playoff team.  Which is favored?  Vegas has a lot more money than me, so I guess they know something I don't, but...Bal.

Oakland(-1.5) @ Miami - This is the game this week.  I have nothing to say.  Oak.

 Cleveland @ Cincinnati(-7) - College football rivalries give special trophies for winning rivalry games, like Paul Bunyan's Axe for Minn-Wis., the Old Oaken Bucket for Indiana-Purdue and the Jeweled Shillelagh for Notre Dame-USC.  The winner of Cleveland-Cincinnati gets to shine Tom Brady's shoes at the end of the season.  Cin

Houston(-6.5) @ Jacksonville - Maurice Jones-Drew has learned that being the best offensive player on the worst offense in the league is not grounds for a contract renegotiation.  Arian Foster learned that being the third best offensive player on a top offense gets you a big payday.  Life just ain't fair.  Hou.

Dallas(-3) @ Seattle - Dallas either wins big or loses this game.  You know they won't kick a game winning field goal at the end.  Dal.

Washington(-3.5) @ St. Louis - Perhaps St.Louis should have considered keeping the second pick and trading Sam Bradford.  Was.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh(-4.5) - I'm going with the theory that the Jets team that couldn't score in the pre-season is the real J-E-T-S!  Jets!  Jets!  Jets!  Five weeks to Tebow Time.  Pit

Tennessee @ San Diego(-6.5) - Norv Turner.  'Nuff said.  Ten.

Detroit @ San Francisco(-7) - If you get this game, be prepared to watch a video of one lunatic shaking hands with one uptight jack-ass about 932 times.  And then see the most irrelevant handshake in history after the game is over.  SF.

Denver @ Atlanta(-3) - Peyton Manning is what Matt Ryan should aspire to be - a great QB who spent part of his career with a reputation for not being able to win the big one before winning a Super Bowl.  But Ryan isn't Peyton.  Atl.

Last Week: 9-7
Season:  9-7

What to Watch For -

1.  Fall television season begins.  I don't care, because I only watch about 4 shows per week, but I am here to point out the obvious, if nothing else.

2.  Will the Phillies be this year's St. Louis Cardinals?  Or just the latest Philadelphia sports team to play Lucy to the fans' Charlie Brown?

3.  Will Middle score two goals and force an own goal in every soccer game he plays this year (pulled the same move yesterday)?

4.  Can I get back on a better posting schedule?

Fat Old Man Update - Lost my Olympics inspired momentum.  Looking to find a way back, starting today.  We started church again today.  There is something poetic about renewing my commitment to my spiritual self and my physical self at the same time.