What a Difference a Year Makes

 Oh what a night!

In their wildest dreams, USA Swimming could not have asked for a more exciting first night of the Swimming Olympic Trials.  I took "knock me out" cold medicine when it was all over and it still took me an hour to fall asleep.

Before we get to the meet, let's consider the last year.  Tonight is the finals of the Women's 100 Fly.  The Women's 100 Fly is a going to be a battle.  The top two seeds are teenagers.  The third seed, Kelsi Dahlia, has been the dominant U.S. flyer for the past four years.  If you asked me two weeks ago who I thought would be most hurt by the year delay of the Tokyo Olympics, I would have said Kelsi Dahlia.  (And seriously, why didn't you ask me that?)  In early 2020, she was still the dominant U.S. flyer.  One year later, an 18 year old named Tori Huske (from Arlington, VA - go VA) and a 16 year old named Claire Curzan have had the chance to emerge as not just a threat to Kelsi Dahlia, but arguably the favorites to make it to Tokyo.  Kelsi Dahlia has gone from the favorite to win Olympic trials, a probable medalist in the 100 Fly and a potential gold medalist in the 400 medley relay, to looking up at two teenagers.  What a difference a year makes.

Everyone knows what the last year has brought.  Anyone who pays attention to the world of swimming has heard the stories of searching for an open pool, swimming in open water, trying to find a backyard pool, or buying an endless pool last spring/summer, just to get in the water.  Endless pools were virtually impossible to find last year.   (Perhaps I shouldn't use the word virtually - it has a whole different meaning now.)

Aside from the breaks in training, the extra year has given a new, young group of swimmers one more year to grow, mature and train to make their Olympic dreams come true this year, rather than waiting for 2024.  At the top of that list is Claire Curzan, who is a legitimate contender to make the Olympics in several events.  It is possible Curzan could go on to a career that rivals those of some of the best swimmers in U.S. history and the delay from 2020 to 2021 could give her 1-5 more medal chances than she likely would have had.  Tori Huske is another who likely would not have been ready to compete for an Olympic spot a year ago.  Alex Walsh, Kate Douglass, Rhyan White, Emma Weyant (who qualified last night), Carson Foster (who just missed last night), and Jake Magahey (who also didn't make it last night) are others who likely have a much better chance in 2021 than in 2020.

Dahlia was my pick for swimmer hurt the most by the delay.  This has more to do with the rise in her competition than any drop in her performance.  However, we all know Father Time is the only undefeated person in sports.  Eventually, he always wins.  It is difficult to say who may have been impacted by the extra year of mileage on their bodies.  Did Anthony Ervin lose anything more by turning 40?  It is arguable Nathan Adrian benefited, by having more time to recover from and train after being treated for testicular cancer.   Ryan Lochte may also have benefited from an extra year to train after his various debacles.

Of course, my pick for person hurt the most by the delay looked FANTASTIC yesterday, so I am not looking real good right now.  And how I look is the most important factor in all this.  Perhaps I should have gone with Zane Grothe, the best U.S. 400 freestyler the past 4 years who failed to make the final.  I may still be right, but as we have already learned, nothing is certain in the most stress filled swim meet in the world.

Speaking of...back to yesterday.  From two incredible races in the 400 IMs to Kieran Smith's pressure filled 400 Free (needing not just to finish in the top 2, but also to make the Olympic Qualifying time), to two American Records, Day 1 was worth the wait.  The award for best sport goes to Melanie Margalis who finished a 400 IM, missed an Olympic spot by .12 seconds and reacted by laughing and giving the two women who beat her big congratulatory hugs.  The Women's 400 IM was also the best race, but just barely over the Men's 400 IM, both coming down to the last 10 meters to determine who will finish top 2.  Tonight promises to be even better.

Predictions results:

Men's 400 IM - Chase Kalisz, Carson Foster - So close.  I thought Foster had 2nd, but Jay Litherland had an incredible finish to sneak into second place (or blast into second place)
Men's 400 Free - Kieran Smith, Jake Mitchell - Nailed it.  To be fair, I would have picked Grothe second if he made finals and would have picked Jake Magahey if he had made finals.  Smith was my pick for 1st all along.
Women's 400 IM - Melanie Margalis, Hali Flickinger - as the three swimmers raced the last 50 meters, I changed my thoughts on how they would finish about 9 times.  Just simply a great race to watch (but really, really painful to swim).  I correctly predicted Flickinger 2nd, so, half credit.

Predictions:

Women's 100 Fly - Notwithstading my whole commentary above, I am sticking with the teenagers, Tori Huske, Claire Curzan
Men's 100 Breast - Michael Andrew, Nic Fink
Women's 400 Free - Katie Ledecky, Paige Madden

What to look forward to:

1.  What happens in the bloodbath that is the Women's 100 Fly?
2.  What happens in the semifinals of the bloodbath that is the Women's 100 Back?
3.   How does Katie Ledecky respond to Ariarne Titmus putting up a 400 Free time less than half a second off the world record?
4.  What does Michael Andrew do for an encore?
5.  Is 2016 Ryan Murphy back?
6.  Will I actually go three days in a row?