Too Much Time (Off)?

It seems I took too much time off.  With each passing day, there is more news related to the big quadrennial event in Rio this summer.  Most of it is bad news.  Most of it isn't breaking news, just more to add on the already bad news.


Today, the #1 ranked men's golfer in the world, Jason Day, withdrew from the Rio Olympics, citing concerns about the Zika virus.  Day is simply the latest golfer to withdraw.  Setting aside, for the moment, that golf shouldn't be in the Olympics, this is not a good trend.  About every three days another golfer withdraws for one reason or another.  Zika is, of course, only one problem Rio faces.  We'll touch on those problems at another time.  They are far too extensive to squeeze into the limited time and space we have during the Trials.


Rather than dwelling on the problems of Rio today, I would like to praise Leah Smith and dwell on the problems of Ryan Lochte and Missy Franklin.


Last night, the most dominant athlete in the world failed to dominate.  If you scroll ahead of this post, you will see that I give myself a WRONG on my Women's 400 Free prediction.  Katie Ledecky won, so I got that, but someone snuck onto the screen with her at the 400th meter.  As a matter of fact, Leah Smith, of UVA fame (OK, maybe not fame, but she is a Cavalier), was tickling Ledecky's toes at the end of the race.  No one else was in the screen with Ledecky and Smith, but Smith had the most impressive swim of the night.  We are used to seeing Ledecky destroy the hopes and dreams of distance swimming women across the Universe.  And I mean Universe.  Those Venetians can swim some distance, but they can't touch Ledecky.  Smith touched Ledecky.  The race was never in doubt, but when someone shows that the GOAT is almost mortal, you stand up and take notice.  I love watching Ledecky swim.  I love watching Ledecky dominate.  Last night, I loved watching Leah Smith show the world that the US is going to crush them with two women in the 400 free, not just one.


On the other side of the coin, we have Lochte and Franklin.  I am now greatly concerned that these two swimming superstars are going to find themselves on the outside looking in, as far as individual events are concerned.  Lochte has already missed the Olympics in one event.  Tonight he tries again in the Men's 200 Free.  This event looks like a complete crapshoot.  Less than a second separates 1st and 8th place.  Remember, only two of these people make it in the individual 200 Free.  Someone is going to miss making the Olympics in an individual event by less than .2 of a second.  And someone else is going to miss being on a relay by the same amount.  I fear Lochte is going to find himself on a relay, and not in the individual event.  I feel like Conor Dwyer is going to make this event his and the other 7 guys are fighting for second.


This may be why Phelps didn't swim the 200 Free.  He saw the demolition derby this event was going to be and said, "I'll wait for the 200 fly."  Not a lot of people make that decision, but hey, he's Michael Phelps.  He has more Olympic gold medals than the number of push-ups I can do.  Who am I to argue?


Missy Franklin faces her own challenges in her first event.  After last night's semifinals in the 100 Back, she is 7th.  Olivia Smoliga has a Conor Dwyer look about her.  It is her time and her event and everyone else can fight for the second spot.  She isn't dominating.  She just looks a little better than everyone else.  And as a child of Polish immigrants, she has a new biggest fan in The Wife.  Missy has done what she needed to do.  Survive and Advance.  But now is go time, and to throw in another cliché, I'm not sure she has that second gear.


Looking ahead, after this morning's Women's 200 Free prelims, Katie Ledecky and Leah Smith are the top two seeds.  Remember that 400 free?  I wouldn't want those two in my way for anything right now.  The only thing they can't stop is Middle going for a donut.  This is also not a good sign for Missy.


In other news, England seems to be self destructing.  I realize the weather in England isn't that good, but how hard is it really to beat a country that literally has ice in the name in a game played on grass.  This was the biggest sporting achievement for Iceland since the 12-1 drubbing of the US Junior Hockey Team at the Junior Goodwill Games in 1994.


A few Random Thoughts:

1.  The Wife loves Moms who achieve great things, so was very happy to see Dana Vollmer finish 2nd in the 200 Fly.


2.  Sad day in sports.  Rest in Peace Pat Summit and Buddy Ryan.  The pain they have been living with is gone, their contributions to basketball and football continue.


3.  Congratulations to the qualifiers from yesterday - Kelsi Worrell, Dana Vollmer, Katie Ledecky, Leah Smith, Kevin Cordes and Cody Miller.


What to Watch For:

1.  Is Lochte, at 31 years old, done?

2.  Is Missy, with too many injuries in the past couple years, done?  (At least for this Olympic cycle)

3.  Is Natalie Coughlin, at 34 years old, done?  (Take a moment to appreciate her amazing swimming career if the answer is yes.)

4.  Is Michael Phelps, at 30 years old, going to win one for the 30 somethings?

5.  Who will win the battle of youth v. experience in the 100 back?


6.  Can I be more entertaining and less newsy tomorrow?


Predictions Wrap Up:

1.  Women's 100 Fly - Worrell, Vollmer - Correct
2.  Men's 100 Breast - Cordes, Prenot - Correct and WRONG!  Prenot gets 3rd.
3.  Women's 400 Free - Ledecky and no one else will be on the screen when she touches. - WRONG!  Leah Smith, I have never been so pleased to be wrong.
4.  10 x 75 free with paddles is going to hurt tonight. - Not as bad as I thought, actually.


Predictions:


1.  Men's 200 Free - Dwyer, Haas (Conger, Smith, Lochte, Clary)
2.  Women's 100 Back - Smoliga, Baker
3.  Men's 100 Back - Murphy, Plummer (knocking out yet another defending Olympic Champion)
4.  Women's 100 Breast - King, Meili