So far, the US Olympic Swimming Trials has been the emergence of a new group of Olympians, and a young group. I think you may have heard this from me. Probably from others as well, if you cheat on me and go to other sources for Olympic Swimming news and commentary.
As we watched experience fall, in the faces of Ryan Lochte, Natalie Coughlin, Missy Franklin and Matt Grevers, we were lulled into the false expectation that this year would be a great transition in US Swimming. Well, at least I was. Of course, Michael Phelps is the exception that proves the rule. The GOAT can't be dethroned. He must step down. Yes, Father Time will win eventually, even over the great Michael Phelps, but not now. Not this day. Phelps aside, and perhaps a couple other exceptions (Hi, Dana Vollmer), youth and inexperience were being served. Where we once had Missy Franklin, we now have Olivia Smoliga. Where we once had Ryan Lochte, we now have 19 year old Townley Haas. Where we once had Matt Grevers, we now have Ryan Murphy.
These young'uns didn't just replace former champions, the dethroned them, right there in Omaha. In my house it is impossible to not scream "OMAHA!" a la Peyton Manning whenever Omaha is mentioned by anyone. Is it just my house? OMAHA!! They stepped up to the blocks and reminded everyone that the US Swimming Trials are the ultimate meritocracy. You have to earn your position. Even Katie Ledecky, the returning champion and dominant swimmer of the day, is only 19 years old. Youth is served, even if it has a little experience.
However, as soon as we see a trend, the fates throw us a curveball. I was convinced Missy Franklin was done. I was wrong. Last night, she dug into that well of desire, guts and willpower to earn her way into the 200 free. I expected (and predicted) her to qualify for the 800 free relay. I never expected her to finish top 2. Even off the last turn, in what was almost as exciting a race as the Men's 200 Free, you know except for that 19 year old dominator crushing dreams all over the world, I expected Missy to falter. I should have had more faith. A champion is a champion for a reason. Missy is a champion. She also really isn't that old. She has something I don't have (OK, she has a lot of things I don't). She reached down deep and found it, to get to the wall second.
Tomorrow night, Ryan Lochte has a chance to do the same thing. I have counted him for dead. He made the 800 Free Relay. He may be hoping to be selected for the 400 Free Relay (although at this point, that is doubtful), but I don't see him making it in an individual event. I may be wrong. I was wrong with Missy. In a way, I hope he's wrong. In a way, I hope a 19 year old from Northern Virginia takes that spot away from him, just like Ryan Murphy did to Matt Grevers. Either way, and there are several other people who could take that second spot in the 200 IM, it sure is fun to watch.
A few Random Thoughts:
1. How about that Poland-Portugal match in the Euros? If Poland pulls this out, The Wife will go crazy. With Polish-American Olivia Smoliga not only being a phenomenal backstroker, but also a bubbly person and a good interview, it is good to be of Polish heritage right now. Of course, I fully expect Ronaldo to ruin this little dream. He always does that.
2. It can't be said enough. Phelps looks really good. Can't wait to see what he does in Rio.
3. It can't be said enough. Ledecky is the best in the world at what she does. Two gold medals is almost definite. Three is probable. Four is possible. Five not out of the question. This from someone who only swims freestyle. Ridiculous.
4. Rockville Maryland's Jack Conger finished 3rd in the Men's 200 Fly. This was his second 3rd place finish this week. He is in the 800 Free Relay, but that has got to hurt.
5. Caitlin Leverenz missed qualifying in the 200 IM by .05 of a second. Try to start and stop a stopwatch in .05 seconds. You can't do it. In less than the amount of time you can push a button twice, her dreams of going to Rio this summer ended. Brutal. Kind of makes me happy I was never good enough to have my Olympic dreams crushed by a fingernail. My Olympic dreams were crushed by a mile.
6. Congratulations to the qualifiers from yesterday - Katie Ledecky, Missy Franklin, Michael Phelps, Tom Shields, Maya DiRado and Melanie Margalis.
What to Watch For:
1. Less than 3/4 of a second separates the 2nd qualifier in the Men's 100 free from the 8th qualifier. More people are going to have their dreams crushed by tiny, tiny amounts of time. This is also a great youth v. experience race, with Caeleb Dressel going up against the long time great, Nathan Adrian.
2. We know Katie Ledecky is 1500, 800 and 400 dominant. We know that Katie Ledecky is 200 great. Tonight, we learn what she is in the 100. Is she an Olympian? Or a relay swimmer?
3. No World Records so far in the Trials. Kevin Cordes made a run in the 200 Breast semifinals. Gets another chance in the finals.
4. Cassidy Bayer, from West Potomac High School (alma mater of yours truly) goes for her dream in the 200 Fly tonight.
Predictions Wrap Up:
1. Women's 200 Free - Ledecky, Smith (Schmitt, Franklin) - Right four, wrong two. Missy proves me WRONG!
2. Men's 200 Fly - Phelps, Clark - Yes and WRONG! Tom Shields was the one to keep Jack Conger out...again.
3. Women's 200 IM - DiRado, Leverenz (bucking the trend of new Olympians) - Yes and so painfully WRONG!
4. Middle crushes his 25 fly tonight. - Nope. Not bad, but not a crushing.
Predictions:
1. Men's 200 Breast - Cordes, Prenot
2. Women's 200 Fly - Adams, Bayer. (Yes, I am being a homer.)
3. Men's 100 Free - Adrian, Dressel
4. 8 x 100 backstroke for me tonight will hurt. And I will mutter "Damn you, Rich Williams" at least once.
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