Choking Dogs

Editor's Note:  Although this was written and published after the Women's Free Skate, the writer was unaware of the specific events that occurred during the Women's Free Skate at the time it was written.

During the Women's Short Program yesterday, Yulia Lipnitskaia fell.  My Baltic States Insider told me she saw a headline that said only:  LIPNITSKAIA FALLS.  Never mind that this should not have been the biggest story in any country.  In most countries, the biggest story was Yuna Kim was leading and in position to become the first back to back winner of the Women's Figure Skating event since Katarina Witt.  Let's all take a moment and remember the visual joy that Katarina Witt gave us for so many years.  In the United States, the biggest story was that all three of our skaters had performed well, and were at least within striking distance of a medal.  In Italy and Russia, the story should have been that one of their skaters was in the top three, and less than one point behind the Queen.  Sadly, all the Russians seemed to care about was the mistake of a 15 year old girl.

While watching the telecast last night, after Lipnitskaia fell, someone (I believe it was Sandra Bezik, but I don't specifically recall) asked whether the weight of expectations had finally taken its toll on this 15 year old girl?  Essentially, the question was whether she choked.

Also yesterday, the Russian Men's hockey team lost in the quarterfinals to Finland.  NBC has hired a Russian television talk show host named Vladimir Posner to give viewers the Russian perspective on all things Sochi 2014.  Posner has stated, on too many occasions, that if the Russians win the gold medal in hockey, nothing else matters...and if the Russians fail to win the gold medal in hockey, nothing else matters.  I have heard that Vladimir Putin has said the same thing.  For the second Olympics in a row, Russia will fail to win any medal, much less gold.

In the Women's Hockey gold medal game, the US had a 2-0 lead over Canada with less than 4 minutes to play.  After two Canadian goals in 3 minutes, the teams were staring at a sudden death overtime, during which Canada scored to win the gold medal for the fourth straight time.

Did the US Women choke?  Did the Russian Men?  Did Lipnitskaia?  According to Wikipedia, "in sports, a "choke" is the failure of an athlete or an athletic team to win a game or tournament when the player or team had been strongly favored to win or had squandered a large lead in the late stages of the event."  By this definition, the US Women's team choked, The Russian Men's team did not, and Lipnitskaia may have depending on whether you think the term "win" means to win the gold, or win a medal.  She was heavily favored to win a medal, but Yuna Kim was favored to win gold.

Sally Jenkins, a columnist for the Washington Post who I believe is a little too preachy a little too much of the time wrote an article under the title, "Figure skater Julia Lipnitskaia succumbs to weight of all of Russia."  I don't know who writes the titles for these articles and I have no idea if Jenkins thinks Lipnitskaia choked under pressure or not.  I read the article and her main point seems to be that too much was asked of a 15 year old girl.  And make no mistake, Lipnitskaia is a girl.  Jenkins said that having Lipnitskaia perform in the team competition and the individual may have been too much.  To a certain extent, Jenkins is blaming age, pressure and lack of experience for Lipnitskaia's performance in the short program.  I'm a little surprised she didn't blame Putin.

Is it possible that a competitor simply made a mistake while trying to complete a very difficult athletic maneuver on ice?  Or do we have to play mind games with a fifteen year old?  Swimming, running, weight lifting, these are all pursuits easily accomplished.  Go as fast as you can on land or in water, lift as much as you can.  There are other sports like this, but these stand out to me.  Not one Winter Olympics competition is this simple, because they all are performed on ice or snow.  Something can always happen.

Shaun White, the best in the history of his sport, misses a jump by a few inches and fails to medal.  Is he a choker?  Is he over the hill?  Did he have a bad day at the wrong time?  Was the snow a little funky because he is competing in a summer resort area?  Ole Einar Bjoerndalen misses 4 of 5 targets in the last shooting range of the Mass Start biathlon.  Is he a choker?  All Bjoerndalen and White were trying to do was make history, Bjoerndalen as the all time leading medal winner in Winter Olympics history and White as the first American to win gold in the same event in three straight Winter Olympics.  No one said the pressure was too much for them.  But that 15 year old girl?  She just couldn't take it.

The Russian hockey team is another story altogether.  The people who aren't claiming Ovechkin can't lead a team and the country put too much pressure on them and the coach is an idiot and they are just a bunch of chokers decided to take a look at the team.  Russia made the same mistake with their hockey team as the US used to make with their basketball team.  They put together a group of stars with no thought how those stars would mesh together as a team.  USA Basketball did this in 2004 and found themselves holding a bronze medal to match the ones won in the 1998 and 2006 World Championships and their 2002 6th place performance.  At that time, someone decided that the 12 best players don't make the best team.  Mike Krzyzewski was brought in to build a team.  Sure most of the players were the names you would expect, but the occasional Tayshaun Prince, Michael Redd or Carlos Boozer, brought in to fill a specific role, can make a big difference when the rest of the world is starting to catch up with you.  I heard that TJ Oshie, who is a good player, was put on the US team specifically because of what he can do in a shootout.  Worked out pretty well, didn't it?

The Russians didn't choke, they just aren't that good anymore.  Don't get me wrong, they are a good team, but there are only 12 teams in the Olympics.  They are all pretty good.  The Soviet Union may have had enough talent to win if they didn't have a real team, but we will never know.  Not only were they the most talented on paper, they were a finely tuned machine, working together to crush everyone.  Russia can't do that today.  The rest of the world has caught up in talent, and they haven't adapted.

The talent gap in basketball stills swings to the US, but it only took one Olympic failure for us to change things.  We lost in 1988, then started bringing the pros.  We lost in 2004, then changed the way the team was selected.  Russia never did that.  Since the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Unified team in 1992, Russia has won 2 medals in 6 Olympics, a silver in 1998 and a bronze in 2002.  Maybe it is time to stop expecting gold and start working for it.  These guys didn't choke, their hockey federation and their General Manager and their country and their President let them down by expecting them to win without giving them the proper tools to do so.

Lipnitskaia didn't choke either.  She skated well and she fell.  It happens.  It happens to 15 year old girls, it happens to 19 year old boys, it happens to 28 year old men and (figuratively at least) 40 year old men who have won more medals than anyone else in the Winter Olympics.

As for the US Women, yeah, I got nothing.  They choked.

Reflections on What Has Happened (Focus for this will be on US sports and medals, but we will touch on other stuff as time permits)

1. Ted Ligety didn't win the Giant Slalom, he crushed it.

2.  Congratulations to Lauryn Williams on becoming the 5th person to win an Olympic Medal in both the Summer and Winter Games.

3.  Biathlon under the lights is simply awesome.

4.  Congratulations to Ole Einar Bjoerndalen for winning gold in the Biathlon Mixed Relay.  Bjoerndalen has now won more Winter Olympic Medals than anyone.  I expect him to get one more.  Then he will only be 8 behind Michael Phelps.

5.  The Heartbreaker takes bronze.  Team GB beat the Swiss in the Women's Curling Bronze Medal Game.  She'll be back for more in 2018.

6.  Norway seems to have finally figured out their cross country skiing equipment issues, winning the Women's Team Sprint Final and the Biathlon Mixed Relay.

7.  Wow we suck at speed skating this year.

Predictions Recap

1. US gets bronze in Men's hockey, gold in Women's. - Pending, and WRONG!!!

2. Ashley Wagner shocks the world with a bronze. - Pending and tonight will decide. (She won't do it, though; Gracie will.)

3. Mikaela Shiffrin becomes the darling of these games. - Really, really. really close to wrong.

4. US beats Russia in both total medals and golds. - Pending, and very close, but we are doing it so far.

5. I will watch more biathlon than anyone else in America. - Still pending, but so far, so good.

6. Putin will be on TV more during these Olympics than Kate Middleton was in 2012. And that's a bad thing, because Kate is much more fun to look at, for everyone except my Baltic States Insider. - So far, so good.

7. Yulia Lipnistkaya gets confused for a lost child and almost misses the Women's Short Program.  No report on this, but maybe that is why she fell.

8. Yuna Kim gold in figure skating. Lipnitskaya Silver. Gracie Bronze.  - Pending

2. Bronze for US in Nordic Combined Team event.  WRONG!!!  The perfect storm of 2010 may have been an aberration.

Predictions 

1.  Norway wins Men's Biathlon Relay, Bjoerndalen gets his 14th medal.

2.  US 4-3 win over Canada in Men's Hockey.

3.  Sweden 5-2 win over Finland in other semi.


What to Watch For

1. Hockey.  Can US ever beat Canada?  If it goes to a shootout, is TJ Oshie the only guy out there?

2.  Ski Cross.  Or demolition derby, whatever you want to call it.

3.  Women's Biathlon Relay.  The Biathlon under the lights truly is the best thing to watch in these games.

4.  Will the US win any Speed Skating medals in these games?  Eric Heiden, Bonnie Blair, Apolo Ohno, your legacy is dead.

Random Fact of the Day

As of Thursday, 10 Speed Skating events have been contested.  The Netherlands have won 6 of the 10 events, swept the podium in 4 of the 10 events, and won at least one medal in all 10 events.  The Netherlands is third in the medal count with 22 medals.  21 of those have been won in Speed Skating.